Abstract
Carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air capture, are valuable for stringent climate targets. Previous work has examined implications of carbon removal, primarily bioenergy-based technologies using integrated assessment models, but not investigated the effects of a portfolio of removal options on power systems in detail. Here, we explore impacts of carbon removal technologies on electric sector investments, costs, and emissions using a detailed capacity planning and dispatch model with hourly resolution. We show that adding carbon removal to a mix of low-carbon generation technologies lowers the costs of deep decarbonization. Changes to system costs and investments from including carbon removal are larger as policy ambition increases, reducing the dependence on technologies like advanced nuclear and long-duration storage. Bioenergy with carbon capture is selected for net-zero electric sector emissions targets, but direct air capture deployment increases as biomass supply costs rise.
Highlights
Carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air capture, are valuable for stringent climate targets
We include technical and economic characteristics of the two main carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options being pursued at demonstration scales, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) and DAC21,22, alongside representations of other low-carbon power sector options in the Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (REGEN) model, a state-of-the-art model of power sector investments and operations[23]
BECCS is preferred to direct air capture (DAC) for a net-zero electric sector CO2 target, DAC deployment increases as biomass supply costs rise in scenarios with higher CDR demand
Summary
Carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air capture, are valuable for stringent climate targets. We explore impacts of carbon removal technologies on electric sector investments, costs, and emissions using a detailed capacity planning and dispatch model with hourly resolution. Numerous studies look at power sector decarbonization with models of the energy system or power sector with technological, temporal, and spatial detail[18], but analyses with CDR options are limited and typically include only BECCS12,19,20. There are no studies in the extant literature that include a portfolio of CDR technologies and systematically investigate potential investment and operational impacts of CDR availability. This paper addresses these gaps by investigating the role of CDR on power sector outcomes under deep decarbonization scenarios for the USA. Given uncertainty about technologies and policy, we conduct sensitivity analysis to explore how these factors can influence costs and emissions
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