Impact of basic risks, sanctions and adverse market conditions on the coal industry development in Russia over the period to 2040. Part II: Impact of risks and sanctions on the coal industry, and efficiency of the industry advancement scenarios in the post-crisis period

Abstract

The external and internal challenges discussed in Part I of this article in Gornyi Zhurnal Issue 10, 2020, which are risk-critical for the coal industry of Russia, became a framework for the assessment of the impact exerted on the industry by sanctions and adverse conjuncture, as well as for the performance evaluation of the industry advancement scenarios. The maximum impact on the coal industry in Russia is exerted by risks connected with the coal market slump in the world. Furthermore, in recent years, coal demand suffers from depression due to some economical and technological development conditions in the world economy. The ecological pressure on the coal industry is also dynamized. Alongside with risks connected with the adverse conjuncture on the international and domestic markets, including risks of the limited market access, the increasingly higher importance is attached to the risks connected with sanctions imposed on the Russian economy. At the present time, the future of the coal industry in Russia is greatly uncertain. The governmental policy documents introduce a wide range of advancement routes for the coal industry with regard to potential risks. To find more accurate output margins in coal production, prediction and assessment of risk impact on the coal industry is required. The calculation of the risk impact on the coal industry using ERI/RAS model Riskugol shows that sanctions have never exerted any influence on the volumes of coal production and export in Russia. However, accretion of sanctions can appreciably reduce potentialities of the future advancement in the coal industry. The coal industry advancement scenarios are developed and used to assess the industry performance over the period to 2040. Despite higher efficiency of risk scenarios, they also feature higher social risks. Innovativity of the risk scenarios, which drastically improves labor efficiency in the industry, results in layoff and reduction of employees. To counterpoise social risks in the industry over the whole prediction period (even with regard to retirement rate), it is required to create 35–40 thousands of new jobs. This study has been partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research in the framework of R&D Project No. 18-010-00467 Development of Economic Indicators and Production Data for the Coal Industry Development in Russia up to 2035 with the Changing Vector of Global Technological Innovation due to Implementation of Industry 4.0 Program.