Impact of adjusted fertility policies on household consumption patterns in China

Abstract

China's fertility policy adjustments have impacted family fertility decisions but have not reversed the declining birth rate, with economic pressures playing a significant role. This study utilized data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and treated the implementation of China's "two-child" policy as a natural experiment. Using a propensity score matching-difference-in-differences model, the study analyzed data from four periods before and after the policy change to examine how having underage children and additional children affects household consumption behavior. The results indicate that household consumption increases with the number of children, as families with newborns experience higher overall consumption levels. The addition of a second child amplifies this effect, but per capita consumption expenditure decreases as family size grows. Differences in consumption patterns were observed between families with an additional first child and those with a second child. Furthermore, the impact of additional children on household consumption varies significantly depending on the family's education level. The study suggests that the government should design differentiated fertility policies tailored to family characteristics to reduce economic and childcare pressures and create a more supportive environment for family decision-making.