Impact evaluation of policy strategies on promoting waste to energy technologies using system dynamics modelling (A case study: Bandung city)

Abstract

Indonesia consumed 410,454 GWh of electricity in 2015, with the average electricity consumption of 918.6 kWh per-capita. This number is still below the national energy policy mandate that targeting of 2,500 kWh per-capita by 2025. To meet the target, it is necessary to increase the installed capacity of power plant by identifying and utilizing the potential of local energy, particularly from renewable energy resources. This gap between electricity supply and demand is one of the most common energy modeling research areas in developing countries. Proper and efficient execution of policy play a vital role in the implementation and adoption of innovations, such as: potency of energy diversity by using waste to energy (WtE) technologies to generate electricity over conventional power generation. Within this context, a system dynamic (SD) model was developed to identify the most suitable policy from the long term perspective to generate electricity from municipal solid waste (MSW). The methodology explains the feedback loop through causal diagram. Additionally, it also explains the involvement of various stakeholders and the variables necessary for the implementation of WtE in Indonesia. The policy instruments included in the model are: land availability, MSW management, WtE technology options, electricity generation and GHG emission reduction. Furthermore the model was exercised in the Bandung area. The results show that combinations of the above mentioned policy instruments significantly increase the supply of electricity, reduce the GHG emission, decrease the available land needed, and increase the share of renewable energy.