Abstract
The emergency planning of areas subjected to volcanic risk requires the evaluation of impact induced on different element exposed (people, buildings, infrastructures, economy, etc.) by different volcanic phenomena (precursor earthquakes, ash fall, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tsunami, ballistics, landslides, etc.). In this paper, the authors describe the methodology developed at PLINIVS Study Centre (University of Naples Federico II, Italy), Centre of Competence of the Italian Civil Protection, in the framework of volcanic risk concerning the Campania Region volcanoes. The approach is based on the probabilistic analyses of risk and impact scenarios. It allows quantifying the potential losses consequent to possible volcanic eruptions. The results are strongly dependent on the hypothesis assumed and on the parameters used as inputs, providing impact scenarios with a probabilistic estimation and uncertainty treatment. The results constitute an useful tool for emergency planners and decision makers in the evaluation of the resources needed to improve the preparedness measures and to implement at technically feasible and cost-effective mitigation measures on buildings and infrastructure. The scope is to reduce the expected damage, such as the seismic retrofitting of vulnerable buildings along the escape routes identified in the evacuation plan, which might fail due to the presence of debris from collapsed buildings which can affect the practicability of roads. The paper is focussed on the relevant applications performed by PLINIVS simulation model for the preparation and updating of the emergency plan for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei areas.
Highlights
Two active explosive volcanic systems, SommaVesuvius and Campi Flegrei, are located inside the Neapolitan metropolitan area
In the case of volcanic eruptions, characterized by a plurality of events, different vulnerability elements have to analyzed in addition to those considered in the seismic analysis
Emergency planning in urban areas exposed to volcanic risk is closely linked to the statistical assessment of the damage caused by the expected volcanic phenomena
Summary
Two active explosive volcanic systems, SommaVesuvius and Campi Flegrei, are located inside the Neapolitan metropolitan area. The need of the territorial planning and the identification of the management strategies of possible emergencies produced, during the years, an increasing interest in the assessment of possible damages caused by eruptions in this area. The aim of this paper is to describe some probabilistic methodologies for volcanic impact assessment produced by the volcanic eruptions, in order to address the ZUCCARO AND DE GREGORIO planning strategies, the management of the emergency and the possible measures of risk mitigation [Zuccaro and De Gregorio, 2016]. Among the phenomena produced by a volcanic eruption a particular interest is addressed to earthquakes, ash fall and pyroclastic flows. In this article the assessment of the damage to the buildings and to the road network caused by earthquakes and ash falls is addressed, whereas a possible methodology to assess the damages caused by pyroclastic flows is only mentioned
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