Abstract
Potato tuber yield were simulated at Jorhat, Assam under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080 using DSSAT SUBSTOR-Potato model. The model was calibrated and validated for three potato cultivars, viz., Kufri Jyoti, Kufri Pokhraj and Kufri Himalini with the experimental data collected during 2014-15 and 2015-16. Results revealed that if planting is delayed beyond November, all these cultivars are likely to record drastic reduction in tuber yield. Cultivar Kufri Himalini may incur tuber yield loss of 64 per cent in 2020 to 75 per cent in 2080, followed by Kufri Jyoti (57.6% in 2020 to 71.5% in 2080) and Kufri Pokhraj (45.2% in 2020 to 56.2% in 2080). Among the cultivars, Kufri Pokhraj may remain a viable cultivar up to 2050, but Kufri Himalini may lose its sustainability by 2020 itself. Hence, adjustment of planting time and development of improved adaptive potato cultivarsonly will ascertai n future potato production in this region.
Highlights
Potato is the most important non-grain field crop with a global production of 501 million tonnes in 2014 (FAO, 2014)
IPCC (2013) projected the global temperature change based on various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
The field experiment was conducted at Jorhat, Assam (26°44 ́N latitude, 94°l0 ́E longitude and 9l m above mean sea level),respectively during rabi seasons of 2014-15 and 2015-16 in a sandy clay loam soil (Table 1) with three cultivars of potato, viz., (Kufri Jyoti, Kufri Pokhraj and Kufri Himalini) and three dates of planting at 15 days interval (20 November, 6 and 22 December in 2014-15 and 19 November, 5 and 21 December in 2015-16) in a randomized
Summary
Potato is the most important non-grain field crop with a global production of 501 million tonnes in 2014 (FAO, 2014). IPCC (2013) projected the global temperature change based on various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) Their assessment suggests that the temperature change at the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850-1900, for all RCP scenarios except RCP 2.6. At Jorhat, Assam increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures, under different RCPs for 2020, 2050 and 2080, suggested increasing level of heat stress during crop growth period (Goswami et al, 2016). Under these circumstances, this study was taken up to evaluate the impact of climate change on potato production in Assam, which is a major potato growing area in the state
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