Abstract
Abstract The hydrologic cycle in the river basins of semi-arid regions is severely influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatic condition in Zoshk-Abardeh watershed in eastern Iran. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting – Version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm to improve the simulation results of the runoff. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System Models (MIROC-ESM) was used to investigate the effects of climate change on hydro-climatic components under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and in near- (2014–2042), mid- (2042–2071), and far- (2072–2100) futures. The temperature component under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 during the near- and mid-future intervals and the far-future period (for RCP6.0) indicated a significant rising trend. The rainfall parameter in all RCPs and future intervals showed an insignificant descending trend. Runoff alterations under the RCP4.5 amid the mid- to far-future intervals and under the RCP8.5 throughout the far-future period trailed a significant descending trend. The results determined that the temperature will track an upward tendency, while precipitation and runoff will follow a descending trend in this watershed by the end of the 21st century.
Highlights
Climatic paleontology evidences that climate change has always been present throughout the history of the planet, but the climatic changes of the last century have two distinct features, as compared with past climatic changes
Topography, and soil classification maps were obtained from the Watershed Management and Natural Resources Organization (WMNRO) and the National Cartographic Center (NCC)
Seventeen parameters were chosen for Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) sensitivity analysis using the 500 simulations of Sequential Uncertainty Fitting – Version 2 (SUFI-2)
Summary
Climatic paleontology evidences that climate change has always been present throughout the history of the planet, but the climatic changes of the last century have two distinct features, as compared with past climatic changes. The speed of recent climatic change is greater so that a considerable number of changes. The recent scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show a global increase in temperature, i.e. 1.1 C in the current century. In addition to the change in the average values of climate variables, the change in rainfall in relation to its past values will be other outcomes, which means increasing the intensity of dry or wet conditions (IPCC ).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
