Forecasting water scarcity with an optimized Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Population growth and climate change have increased the demand for water resources, and there is a need to predict water scarcity effectively. The soil and water assessment tool model has been optimized in this work to estimate water scarcity under several representative concentration pathway scenarios. To improve the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model, a new version of the dwarf mongoose optimization technique named Improved Dwarf Mongoose Optimization has been developed. The findings showed that the optimized Soil and Water Assessment Tool model performs better than other optimization models in terms of water scarcity prediction accuracy. The findings indicated that the improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool model can be used to predict water scarcity in other locations and provide valuable insights into the future of water resource management. According to the results, water availability also decreased in the representative concentration pathways, but the trend declined more in the representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenarios. Critical times of water scarcity have been discovered that can guide water management techniques. The results of this study can help policymakers make informed choices about water management and develop adaptive methods to mitigate the effects of water scarcity.