Impact and cratering rates onto Pluto

Abstract

The New Horizons spacecraft fly-through of the Pluto system in July 2015 will provide humanity’s first data for the crater populations on Pluto and its binary companion, Charon. In principle, these surfaces could be dated in an absolute sense, using the observed surface crater density (# craters/km2 larger than some threshold crater diameter D). Success, however, requires an understanding of both the cratering physics and absolute impactor flux. The Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) L7 synthetic model of classical and resonant Kuiper belt populations (Petit, J.M. et al. [2011]. Astron. J. 142, 131–155; Gladman, B. et al. [2012]. Astron. J. 144, 23–47) and the scattering object model of Kaib et al. (Kaib, N., Roškar, R., Quinn, T. [2011]. Icarus 215, 491–507) calibrated by Shankman et al. (Shankman, C. et al. [2013]. Astrophys. J. 764, L2–L5) provide such impact fluxes and thus current primary cratering rates for each dynamical sub-population. We find that four sub-populations (the q<42AU hot and stirred main classicals, the classical outers, and the plutinos) dominate Pluto’s impact flux, each providing ≈15–25% of the total rate. Due to the uncertainty in how the well-characterized size distribution for Kuiper belt objects (with impactor diameter d>100km) connects to smaller projectiles, we compute cratering rates using five model impactor size distributions: a single power-law, a power-law with a knee, a power-law with a divot, as well as the “wavy” size distributions described in Minton et al. (Minton, D.A. et al. [2012]. Asteroids Comets Meteors Conf. 1667, 6348) and Schlichting et al. (Schlichting, H.E., Fuentes, C.I., Trilling, D.E. [2013]. Astron. J. 146, 36–42). We find that there is only a small chance that Pluto has been hit in the past 4Gyr by even one impactor with a diameter larger than the known break in the projectile size distribution (d≈100km) which would create a basin on Pluto (D⩾400km in diameter). We show that due to present uncertainties in the impactor size distribution between d=1–100km, computing absolute ages for the surface of Pluto is entirely dependent on the extrapolation to small sizes and thus fraught with uncertainty. We show, however, what the ages would be for several cases and illustrate the relative importance of each Kuiper belt sub-population to the cratering rate, both now and integrated into the past. In addition, we compute the largest “fresh” crater expected to have formed in 1Gyr on the surface of Pluto and in 3Gyr on Charon (to 95% confidence) and use the “wavy” size distribution models to predict whether these largest “fresh” craters will provide surfaces for which portions of the crater production function can be measured should most of the target’s surface appear saturated. The fly-through results coupled with telescopic surveys that bridge current uncertainties in the d=10–100km regime should eventually result in the population estimate uncertainties for the Kuiper belt sub-populations, and thus the impact fluxes onto Pluto and Charon, dipping to <30%. We also compute “disruption timescales” (to a factor of three accuracy) for Pluto’s smaller satellites: Styx, Nix, Kerberos, and Hydra. We find that none of the four satellites have likely undergone a catastrophic disruption and reassembly event in the past ≈4Gyr. In addition, we find that for a knee size distribution with αfaint⩽0.4 (down to sub-km diameters), satellites of all sizes are able to survive catastrophic disruption over the past 4Gyr.