Impact and Adaptation Assessment on a National Scale: Case Studies on Water in China

Abstract

In order to assess vulnerability to climate change, not only the degree of climate change impact but also the adaptive capacity of the region with regard to the impact needs to be considered. To achieve such an assessment, a nationalscale impact assessment model is being developed. This paper introduces two case studies related to water problems in China. One of them is a scenario for an assessment of future water withdrawal and consumption in China taking into consideration alternative future socio-economic development patterns. This indicates that the adoption of appropriate policies and efficient technologies can ensure that future water consumption is maintained at the current level, even though water withdrawal will increase under all socio-economic scenarios, which reflects the expected increase in industrial withdrawal. In the other case study, an evaluation is made of the adaptation policies in China for mitigating current flood damage due to climate variability as well as the future increase in flood damage due to climate change is evaluated. Investment in infrastructure for flood prevention in accordance with the expected future climate change can also reduce current flood damage and is found to be robust and low-regret adaptation strategy.