Abstract
Abstract. The densely populated plains of the lower Indus Basin largely depend on water resources originating in the mountains of the transboundary upper Indus Basin. Recent studies have improved our understanding of this upstream–downstream linkage and the impact of climate change. However, water use in the mountainous part of the Indus and its hydropolitical implications have been largely ignored. This study quantifies the comparative impact of upper Indus water usage, through space and time, on downstream water availability under future climate change and socio-economic development. Future water consumption and relative pressure on water resources will vary greatly across seasons and between the various sub-basins of the upper Indus. During the dry season, the share of surface water required within the upper Indus is high and increasing, and in some transboundary sub-basins future water requirements exceed availability during the critical winter months. In turn this drives spatiotemporal hotspots to emerge in the lower Indus where seasonal water availability is reduced by over 25 % compared to natural conditions. This will play an important, but previously unaccounted for, compounding role in the steep decline of per capita seasonal water availability in the lower Indus in the future, alongside downstream population growth. Increasing consumption in the upper Indus may thus locally lead to water scarcity issues, and increasingly be a driver of downstream water stress during the dry season. Our quantified perspective on the evolving upstream–downstream linkages in the transboundary Indus Basin highlights that long-term shared water management here must account for rapid socio-economic change in the upper Indus and anticipate increasing competition between upstream and downstream riparian states.
Highlights
The Indus Basin is shared by Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China, and is home to over 260 million people (Wada et al, 2019)
The population in the upper Indus is projected to grow by 124 % and 245 % towards 2080 in SSP1 and SSP3 respectively (Table 2, compared to reference period 1980– 2010)
This sub-basin contains three large cities, two of which are in Afghanistan, projected to expand rapidly following strong urbanization trends
Summary
The Indus Basin is shared by Pakistan, India, Afghanistan and China, and is home to over 260 million people (Wada et al, 2019). The basin is among the most depleted and water stressed in the world (Laghari et al, 2012; Wada et al, 2011). The arid plains of the lower Indus Basin are densely populated and rely on the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world for their food production. Despite the current overuse of water resources, progress towards achieving the interlinked food and water security Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 2 and 6 respectively) in the Indus Basin is insufficient (Rasul, 2014, 2016). The direct and indirect water resources required to meet these SDGs are projected to increase further under pressure from socio-economic development (Smolenaars et al, 2021; Vinca et al, 2020).
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