Abstract

Stakeholders to consider when evaluating mass immigration include the immigrants themselves, various socioeconomic sectors in the receiving countries, and those remaining in the developing countries that migrants leave. This paper suggests that those remaining will be harmed because emigration stimulates fertility. Continuing high fertility is an obstacle to the saving and investment that are needed for even modest rises in the standard of living. The fertility opportunity hypothesis, illustrated in this paper, suggests that perceptions of economic opportunity control fertility rates. Fertility rises or stays high if people perceive that opportunity is expanding. If the emigration option creates the impression of vast opportunity, fertility is likely to stay high in countries that emigrants leave. This result is detrimental in the long run, and overwhelms the immediate benefit of remittances and opportunities enjoyed by immigrants themselves.

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