Illegal Armed Groups and Local Politics in Colombia

Abstract

This paper studies the factors associated with the presence of guerrilla, paramilitary, and drug trafficking groups in the municipalities of Colombia. Statistical analysis shows three kinds of results. Some of these tend to corroborate explanations that are commonly accepted in Colombia, while others defy deeply rooted beliefs. As a result, some rather curious associations emerge. The availability of energy resources appears to be a crucial factor of attraction for guerrilla and paramilitary groups, but not for drug traffickers. The conflict also seems to affect both the municipalities' ability to impose taxes, as well as the latter's composition. Against conventional wisdom, drug traffickers appear to have the closest ties to the political sphere. This group shows the greatest capacity to influence civil society, has the most corrosive effect on elections, and exerts the greatest influence on the composition of municipal expenditures. A very popular explanation of violence in Colombia posits a strong and positive association between economic conditions, the so-called objective causes, and the armed conflict. The data does not support the arguments that poverty is responsible for it. In contrast, the data suggest that the age of the population, a purely demographic factor, is determinant. The effect of other social variables is more ambiguous. Curiously, the existence of communications infrastructure is the best indicator of the conflict's geography. The administrative disorganization in public expenditures also appears to be related to the influence of armed groups. However, on an almost anecdotal level, an office for municipal planning is positively associated with the influence of drug trafficking.