If You Cut It Will They Ride? Longitudinal Examination of the Elasticity of Public Transport Ridership in the Post-Pandemic Era

Abstract

In the past two years, public transport ridership has declined because of COVID-19 pandemic health measures and new working from home policies. This decline in ridership has caused major financial stress on public transport agencies around the world. Several agencies have responded to this financial stress by reducing services. The extent to which these service cuts will affect transit ridership is unknown because of the changing operational environment in the post-pandemic world. Our study uses a longitudinal panel data from Montréal, Quebec, Canada, to explore the relationship between route-level ridership and operational factors over time. We find that public transport ridership demand at the route level is highly elastic when compared to trip frequency and has become more elastic after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings imply that agencies cutting service in the post-pandemic era run a much more significant risk of creating a “doom spiral,” where service reductions spur greater declines in ridership, forcing further reductions. Demand was found to be most elastic on more frequent routes, so agencies should prioritize maintaining services on their core routes in the post-pandemic era. This study can be of use to public transit planners and policymakers considering making service changes to attract more riders or trying to respond to post-COVID-19 financial stress.