Identifying the spatiotemporal carbon footprint of the petroleum refining industry and its mitigation potential in China

Abstract

As the energy-intensive industry, the rapid growth of petroleum refining caused massive carbon emission. This study is designed to unveil carbon footprint and its temporal-spatial distribution at the refinery level and the industry level in China from the life cycle perspective, and investigate the main factors of carbon emission changes through the logarithmic mean deviation index (LMDI). The results showed that the provincial/regional distribution of the carbon footprint decreased from the eastern coastal and northwest to the southwest. Simultaneously, carbon emissions from PRI increased by 216 Mt from 2000 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 6.93%. Among them, the electricity and thermal phase was the main source of carbon emissions (average 48.45%). In addition, carbon emission intensity was first suppressed and then increased, which the extension of the industrial chain and the inadequate integration of refining were drivers of the increase in carbon emission intensity. The LMDI analysis indicated that investment efficiency and energy intensity were key factors on carbon emission reduction. Further scenario analysis showed that government policies and technological breakthroughs in the short term can slow down the growth in carbon emissions 19.12% and 28.32% lower than the baseline scenario, respectively.