Identifying the Occurrence Time of the Destructive Kahramanmaraş-Gazientep Earthquake of Magnitude M7.8 in Turkey on 6 February 2023

Abstract

Here, we employ natural time analysis of seismicity together with non-extensive statistical mechanics aiming at shortening the occurrence time window of the Kahramanmaraş-Gazientep M7.8 earthquake. The results obtained are in the positive direction pointing to the fact that after 3 February 2023 at 11:05:58 UTC, a strong earthquake was imminent. Natural time analysis also reveals a minimum fluctuation of the order parameter of seismicity almost three and a half months before the M7.8 earthquake, pointing to the initiation of seismic electrical activity. Moreover, before this earthquake occurrence, the detrended fluctuation analysis of the earthquake magnitude time-series reveals random behavior. Finally, when applying earthquake nowcasting, we find average earthquake potential score values which are compatible with those previously observed before strong (M≥7.1) earthquakes. The results obtained may improve our understanding of the physics of crustal phenomena that lead to strong earthquakes.