Identifying the Key Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ Countries

Abstract

The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (B&R) countries play a key role in mitigating global carbon emissions, but their driving factors behind carbon emissions remain unclear. This paper aimed to identify the key driving factors (KDFs) of carbon emissions in the B&R countries based on the extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model. The empirical results showed that: (1) Population and GDP per capita were the KDFs that promoted carbon emission, while energy intensity improvement and renewable energy were the KDFs that inhibited carbon emissions. Urbanization, another KDF, had a dual impact across countries. (2) The KDFs varied across the B&R countries. For the high-income group (HI), population had the greatest impact. It was identified as the KDF promoting carbon emission, while for the other three income groups, GDP per capita, as the dominant factor, was identified as the KDF promoting carbon emission. (3) Moreover, two interesting trends were found, namely, the higher the income, the greater the impact of energy intensity while the lower the impact of GDP per capita. These results could provide guidance for carbon reduction in the B&R countries.