Abstract
‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (B&R) countries play critical roles in mitigating global carbon emission under the Paris agreement, but their driving factors and feasibility to reduce carbon emissions remain unclear. This paper aims to identify the main driving factors (MDFs) behind carbon emissions and predict the future emissions trajectories of the B&R countries under different social-economic pathways based on the extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model. The empirical results indicate that GDP per capita and energy consumption structure are the MDFs that promote carbon emission, while energy intensity improvement is the MDF that inhibits carbon emission. Population, as another MDF, has a dual impact across countries. The carbon emissions in all B&R countries are predicted to increase from SSP1 to SSP3, but emissions trajectories vary across countries. Under the SSP1 scenario, carbon emissions in over 60% of B&R countries can peak or decline, and the aggregated peak emissions will amount to 21.97 Gt in 2030. Under the SSP2 scenario, about half of the countries can peak or decline, while their peak emissions and peak time are both higher and later than SSP1, the highest emission of 25.35 Gt is observed in 2050. Conversely, over 65% of B&R countries are incapable of either peaking or declining under the SSP3 scenario, with the highest aggregated emission of 33.10 Gt in 2050. It is further suggested that decline of carbon emission occurs when the inhibiting effects of energy intensity exceed the positive impacts of other MDFs in most B&R countries.
Highlights
The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (B&R), initiated by China in 2013, aims to build a trade and infrastructure network connecting Asia with Europe and Africa along the ancient SilkRoad
It is further suggested that decline of carbon emission occurs when the inhibiting effects of energy intensity exceed the positive impacts of other main driving factors (MDFs) in most B&R countries
To fill the literature gap, this study aims to identify the main driving factors (MDFs) behind carbon emissions and predict the future emissions trajectories of the B&R countries under different social-economic pathways
Summary
The ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (B&R), initiated by China in 2013, aims to build a trade and infrastructure network connecting Asia with Europe and Africa along the ancient Silk. As of 2015, 65 countries signed this initiative to boost infrastructure, economy, trade, culture, and tourism. The average growth rate (5%) of carbon emissions in the above countries surpassed the average global rate (3%) by a significant margin during the last decade [3,4,5]. The surging economic development and cooperation across B&R countries translate into the increasing growth rate of CO2 emissions. Under the Paris Agreement, with a global temperature control target of 2 ◦ C/1.5 ◦ C, the global carbon emissions need to be half that of their 2010 levels by the year 2050 [6,7]. All 65 B&R countries are signatories to the Paris
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