Identifying Optimal Sites for a Rainwater-Harvesting Agricultural Scheme in Iran Using the Best-Worst Method and Fuzzy Logic in a GIS-Based Decision Support System

Kamaleddin Aghaloo,Yie-Ru Chiu

doi:10.3390/w12071913

Abstract

Rainwater-harvesting (RWH) agriculture has been accepted as an effective approach to easing the overexploitation of groundwater and the associated socioeconomic impacts in arid and semiarid areas. However, the stability and reliability of the traditional methods for selecting optimal sites for RWH agriculture need to be further enhanced. Based on a case study in Tehran Province, Iran, this study proposed a new decision support system (DSS) that incorporates the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and Fuzzy logic into a geographic information system (GIS) environment. The probabilistic analysis of the rainfall pattern using Monte Carlo simulation was conducted and adopted in the DSS. The results have been demonstrated using suitability maps based on three types of RWH systems, i.e., pans and ponds, percolation tanks, and check dams. Compared with traditional methods, the sensitivity analysis has verified that the proposed DSS is more stable and reliable than the traditional methods. Based on the results, a phase-wise strategy that shifts the current unsustainable agriculture to a new paradigm based on RWH agriculture has been discussed. Therefore, this DSS has enhanced the information value and thus can be accepted as a useful tool to ease the dilemma resulting from unsustainable agriculture in arid and semiarid areas.

Highlights

The worsening overexploitation of groundwater in the agricultural sector of arid and semiarid areas worldwide has resulted in severe negative impacts, e.g., declining aquifer heads, groundwater quality deterioration, lower crop yields, land subsidence, seawater intrusion, increased energy consumption, and even degenerated ecosystems [1,2,3]
The purpose of this study is threefold: first, to develop the proposed geographic information system (GIS)-based decision support system (DSS) that achieves suitable maps for three types of RWH agriculture; second, to perform a sensitivity analysis that validates the performance of the proposed method by comparing it with traditional methods; and third, to discuss the phase-wise strategy of transiting the current unsustainable agriculture to a new paradigm of RWH agriculture based on the results of DSS
This study explores the new integration of the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and Fuzzy logic, and compares it with the results of widely used traditional methods, i.e., the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and WOP using sensitivity analysis

Summary

Introduction

The worsening overexploitation of groundwater in the agricultural sector of arid and semiarid areas worldwide has resulted in severe negative impacts, e.g., declining aquifer heads, groundwater quality deterioration, lower crop yields, land subsidence, seawater intrusion, increased energy consumption, and even degenerated ecosystems [1,2,3]. In Iran, the overexploitation of groundwater is largely due to the misplacement of agricultural areas and the lack of an alternative water supply [6,7]. The conventional strategy, e.g., constructing more large dams and exploiting more groundwater, to increase the water supply against increased demand over the last three decades was not a solution but a problem in Iran [9]. Land suitability analysis indicates that most of Iran’s current farmland is located in unsuitable and very poorly suitable lands, which leads to overexploitation of groundwater and impaired agriculture with low productivity [6]. This situation is noticeable in Tehran Province

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Conclusion