Identifying Climate Adjacency for Enhancing Climate Action Using Systems Thinking and Modelling

Kabir Sharma,Mihir Mathur

doi:10.3390/systems9040083

Abstract

This paper presents findings from a process aimed at identifying the climate linkages of non-climate focused environment and development projects in India. Findings from four case studies based on workshops using participatory systems thinking are summarized. These climate adjacencies are documented as systems stories using the tools of systems thinking—behavior over time graphs and causal loop diagrams. These place-based stories highlight how the environment and development projects have linkages with climate change mitigation and adaptation. An attempt has been made to convert one of the systems stories into a computable simulation model using system dynamics modelling. A small concept model has been created thus and used to perform simulation runs. Four scenarios have been generated and the results discussed. Our learning from converting feedback maps into stock-flow models is presented. The insights generated from interpreting the feedback maps and simulation results are also presented. These insights are then compared and the benefits of simulation evaluated. The paper highlights the need to document climate linkages of non-climate-focused development projects and the benefit of converting systems stories into simulation models for developing operational insights. The important role such methods can play in developing capacities for enhancing climate action is also discussed.

Highlights

There is growing evidence that the world is headed towards an increase of at least1.5 ◦ C in average global surface temperature relative to pre-industrial levels by the year 2100 due to anthropogenic climate change [1]
We summarize findings from four case studies of social and environmental development projects aimed at identifying the climate adjacency using participatory systems thinking
We have summarized the insights drawn from these cases and presented a small system dynamics model of one causal loop diagram to illustrate the need for simulating the feedback maps in order to test the insights, conduct policy experiments and explore their contingencies

Summary

Introduction

1.5 ◦ C in average global surface temperature relative to pre-industrial levels by the year 2100 due to anthropogenic climate change [1]. It is estimated that the last time global surface temperature sustained at or above 2.5 ◦ C higher than pre-industrial levels was over 3 million years ago [1]. There is a likelihood of an increase in climate extreme events such as droughts, floods, cyclones and heat waves due to climate change. This would create varying degrees of impact on people living in different parts of the world. The increase in frequency and intensity of such events would challenge the existing adaptive capacities of human settlements to sustainably cope with such impacts [3]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion