Identifying and Predicting the Geographical Distribution Patterns of Oncomelania hupensis.

Niu Niu,Cui Cui,Xu Xu,Shao Shao,Huang Huang,Li Li,Qiu Qiu

doi:10.3390/ijerph16122206

Abstract

Schistosomiasis is a snail-borne parasitic disease endemic to the tropics and subtropics, whose distribution depends on snail prevalence as determined by climatic and environmental factors. Here, dynamic spatial and temporal patterns of Oncomelania hupensis distributions were quantified using general statistics, global Moran’s I, and standard deviation ellipses, with Maxent modeling used to predict the distribution of habitat areas suitable for this snail in Gong’an County, a severely affected region of Jianghan Plain, China, based on annual average temperature, humidity of the climate, soil type, normalized difference vegetation index, land use, ditch density, land surface temperature, and digital elevation model variables; each variable’s contribution was tested using the jackknife method. Several key results emerged. First, coverage area of O. hupensis had changed little from 2007 to 2012, with some cities, counties, and districts alternately increasing and decreasing, with ditch and bottomland being the main habitat types. Second, although it showed a weak spatial autocorrelation, changing negligibly, there was a significant east–west gradient in the O. hupensis habitat area. Third, 21.9% of Gong’an County’s area was at high risk of snail presence; and ditch density, temperature, elevation, and wetting index contributed most to their occurrence. Our findings and methods provide valuable and timely insight for the control, monitoring, and management of schistosomiasis in China.

Highlights

Schistosomiasis, with freshwater snails as the only intermediate host, is the most devastating infectious disease with an estimated global burden of 3.3 million disability-adjusted life years [1,2].Not surprisingly, this disease ranks highly in terms of the negative socio-economic effects it has upon afflicted endemic communities [3], especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in southern China, where the disease has been prevalent for at least 2100 years [4,5]
We analyzed the total area of O. hupensis habitat and the main O. hupensis habitat types in various counties, cities, and districts from 2007 to 2012
O. hupensis distribution area in Jianghan Plain as well as taking its Gong’an County—a severely afflicted endemic schistosomiasis area—as an example to predict O. hupensis habitat suitability based on remotely sensed environmental data

Summary

Introduction

Schistosomiasis, with freshwater snails as the only intermediate host, is the most devastating infectious disease with an estimated global burden of 3.3 million disability-adjusted life years [1,2]. Not surprisingly, this disease ranks highly in terms of the negative socio-economic effects it has upon afflicted endemic communities [3], especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in southern China, where the disease has been prevalent for at least 2100 years [4,5]. In 2014, China proposed the ambitious goal of eliminating schistosomiasis by 2025. Public Health 2019, 16, 2206; doi:10.3390/ijerph16122206 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph

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Discussion

Conclusion