Abstract
COVID-19 that broke out at the end of 2019 continues to spread globally, with frequent occurrence of variant disease strains, thus epidemic prevention and control become a kind of routine job. At present, due to the prevention and control measures such as maintaining social distance and community blockades, there is a boom in material purchases in many places, which not only seriously endangers social order and public environmental safety, but also easily leads to the interruption of the supply chain and the shortage of social materials. This article aims to study the intervention methods to curb the spread and spread of panic buying behavior. Firstly, through crawler technology and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic model, this article analyzes the intervention measures taken by various social forces in China to curb the spread of panic buying, and summarizes the multi-channel intervention measures including online and offline forms. Secondly, through the multi-Agent Monte Carlo method, the targeted intervention mechanism is supplemented in each propagation link of the panic buying propagation model, and a new social intervention model of panic buying under sudden epidemic is constructed. Then, through MATLAB modeling and simulation, the main factors affecting panic buying intervention are discussed. The simulation results show that: (1) The single plan with the best intervention effect is the supply monitoring. While the official response can play an immediate inhibitory effect, but it is affected by credibility and timeliness. The intervention effect of psychological counseling is limited, and it generally needs to be used in combination with other measures. (2) The combination strategy with the best intervention effect is “supply monitoring + official response + psychological counseling,” and the worst is “information review and guidance + psychological counseling.” Supply monitoring is a key measure to curb panic buying. At the same time, “information review and guidance” will have a certain counter-effect in the combined strategy. Finally, the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model are verified by examples of China and Britain.
Highlights
The COVID-19 pandemic that broke out at the end of 2019 has had a serious impact on human society, as it turned out, many cities have seen irrational panic buying incidents
Studying effective social intervention measures and using social forces at all levels to curb the spread of panic buying have important theoretical and practical significance
The results showed that effective government announcement could regulate the anxiety perception of the public and prevent panic buying behavior
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic that broke out at the end of 2019 has had a serious impact on human society, as it turned out, many cities have seen irrational panic buying incidents. The Australian prime minister had to issue a public statement to curb panic buying as a result of mass buying and hoarding by some people, making it difficult for ordinary people to get supplies. Such phenomena have occurred in United States [2] and Japan [3]. Scholars have discussed from the perspectives of commodity supply and demand [6], panic mood [7], social media [8], and so on. How to deal with or reduce the occurrence of panic buying incidents is rarely mentioned, and this is the research content of social intervention measures.
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