Identification of the optimal agricultural structure and population size in a reservoir watershed based on the water ecological carrying capacity under uncertainty

Abstract

The optimal agricultural structure and population size within typical watersheds needs to be identified based on the water ecological carrying capacity (WECC). However, real-world systems of water ecological management are complicated as multiple uncertainties exist in the system parameters, which need some effective optimization methods to deal with. This research presents an inexact simulation-based fuzzy credibility-constrained mixed-integer programming (ISFCCMIP) model. Through integrating interval linear programming, fuzzy credibility-constrained programming, mixed-integer programming, global nutrient export from watersheds, and the Kirchner–Dillon model within a general framework, the developed ISFCCMIP model can effectively deal with the multiple uncertainties in the simulation and optimization processes of water ecological management systems. The developed ISFCCMIP model is applied to a real-world case study in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir Watershed. Results show that the total population that can be carried by the watershed WECC would decrease from [204885, 412367] to [121235, 271280], when the credibility level increases from 0.55 to 0.95. On the contrary, the total agricultural benefit would increase from [3.72, 5.06] × 108 to [3.75, 5.10] × 108 $. The total population in the base year far exceeds the watershed WECC. Although the total agricultural benefit in the base year is between the upper and lower bounds of the optimized results, the agricultural structure is not reasonable and needs to be adjusted. Concurrently, multiple results on the optimal agricultural structure and population size are obtained under different credibility levels and in different carrying capacity scenarios. Such results can provide a series of decision alternatives for watershed policy makers to consider the tradeoff between socio-economic development and water ecological protection. The results also assist the sustainable development of the Xinfengjiang Reservoir Watershed. The proposed model is effective for the optimal management of agricultural structure and population size within a reservoir watershed based on the WECC under multiple uncertainties. It also provides a reference for other areas with similar concerns.