Simulation model for the structure of Finnish agriculture

Seppo Hassinen,Lauri Kettunen

doi:10.23986/afsci.72046

Abstract

The simulation model for the structure of agriculture makes up one part of the Finnish food model. The structure of agriculture is described in the model by the agricultural population as well as by the number, the average size and distribution of all the farms, dairy farms, pig farms, poultry farms and non-animal farms. The agricultural population is calculated by forecasting its share from the total population as a function of GDP. The number of farms is derived from the agricultural population by assuming that the size of a farm family is constant. The average size of the farm is derived by dividing the total acreage by the number of farms. The distribution of farms is forecasted by applying a logarithmic normal distribution function. The starting points for the structure of animal production are the consumption forecasts and self-sufficiency targets. The development of the average yield per animal is forecasted by applying a trend line. Also the average size of animal farms is forecasted by a trend. The number of animal farms is obtained simply by dividing the number of animals by the average farm size.

Highlights

The structure of Finnish agriculture has changed rapidly
Animal production represents the major part of agricultural production with the most important still being milk production, the share of which is nearly half of agriculture’s annual gross return
Considerable changes have occurred in milk production, falling in the 70’s, but it is remaining at the present level and may raise slightly in the future

Summary

Introduction

The structure of Finnish agriculture has changed rapidly. The farm population has fallen considerably and with it the number of farms. Considerable changes have occurred in milk production, falling in the 70’s, but it is remaining at the present level and may raise slightly in the future. The distribution of farms has changed considerably. The ongoing structural development of agriculture is not wholly accepted, since it means a decrease in farm population with rural areas becoming de-populated. There are, strong internal factors in the development which are difficult to overcome if this structural change is to be affected. The purpose of this study is to construct a mathematical model which can be used to follow the change of the structure of agriculture. The model is a part of a simulation model for the whole agriculture which is briefly described below

Food and agriculture model for Finland

Social structure of agriculture

Structure of the dairy sector

Pork production

Findings

Egg production