Identification of suitable location to cultivate grape based on disease infestation using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and remote sensing

Abstract

This study aims to identify suitable regions for grape cultivation and the areas where diseases are likely to occur in Fars Province, Iran. The study employs a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy logic methods, taking into account the ecological requirements of grape plants. Fourteen essential parameters for grape cultivation are prepared, and interpolation maps are created for each parameter. Fuzzy maps are generated by defining membership functions, and AHP is utilized to compare and determine the importance of each factor to produce a final map of grape cultivation land suitability. The study reveals that grape cultivation is most suitable in the southern regions of Fars Province. Furthermore, the research identifies the areas where Powdery mildew, Gray mold, and GFLV diseases may occur based on rainfall and temperature levels. The study recommends against grape cultivation in the southern region due to the possibility of these diseases developing. The study employs a highly accurate regression method (R2 = 0.968 and F = 0.00001) and principal component analysis (PCA) to determine that land suitability class strongly correlates with Tmin, NDVI, LST, Total disease, Tmean, and RH. By identifying the areas suitable for grape cultivation and where pests may flourish, the necessary management can be implemented to ensure maximum harvest in the best suitable locations for grape planting.