Identification of spatial imbalances and risks of regional labor market development in Ukraine in the context of current destabilization processes

Abstract

The article focuses on the problems of destabilization of the Ukrainian national economy and its regional markets in the context of the full-scale war. The key challenges of regional development in the short term as a result of their growing imbalances are identified, in particular the functioning of labor markets. The authors point out the long-term challenges to the development of regional labor markets and prove that the policy of their leveling should be based on strengthening competitiveness and enhancing convergence with the EU labor markets. The most critical trends in social stability in the regions of Ukraine during the war are characterized. The article presents statistical parameters of the registered labor market in the regions of Ukraine separately in terms of labor supply and separately in terms of labor demand in the pre-war period and during the war. The reasons for the low level of registered unemployment in the regions of Ukraine during the war are highlighted. The authors analyze the level of balance of regional labor markets and identify the main risks and threats to their functioning and development in the context of modern destabilization processes. Based on the analysis of regional aggregate demand (vacant and employed jobs) and aggregate supply (economically active population) in 2008, 2014, and 2021, the level of balance of the domestic labor market is calculated and assessed. Three types of labor-surplus regions are identified: (1) regions with a lag in socio-economic development and intensive demographic growth; (2) depressed regions, where the number of jobs stabilizes or decreases due to stagnation in the areas of specialization due to the exhaustion of raw materials or poor competitiveness of manufactured products; (3) regions with a deformed economic structure or monopoly position of enterprises and individual industries in the labor market, which leads to an imbalance of demographic or qualification nature. The prospects and priorities of the state policy of stabilizing the functioning and ensuring the development of regional labor markets in Ukraine are outlined.