Identification of production planning and supply of glass bottles at the bottled tea company

Abstract

Sinar Sosro Limited (SS Ltd) is a company that produces a variety of packaged teas with superior products of bottled tea with 220 ml glass bottles. Based on the preliminary research, the glass bottles still can meet the production but with the demand. In their production planning, the company applies a method of estimating or predicting so that production results cannot meet production demand. This is the background of the researchers to make production planning based on forecasting methods and determine the quantity of glass bottle orders to meet demand. In forecasting the demand for production of the 220 ml glass bottle packaging, the methods used are Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Linear Regression by comparing the size of forecasting errors using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). To determine the supply of glass bottles used the EOQ (Economy Order Quantity) method to determine the purchase of the most economical glass bottles. Base on the data, the Moving Average method (n=9) was the best forecasting used to predict the 220 ml glass bottle packaging demand for the next period of 233,862 crates with MAD forecasting error of 13,680, MSE of 561,420,907, and MAPE 5.49% which is the smallest value of the three methods. The application of the EOQ method results in the most economical order of glass bottles that is 136,234 crates for one message with a total repurchase frequency of 21 times a year.