IDENTIFICATION OF PROBLEMS AND FORECASTING TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN DAIRY MARKET

Abstract

The subject of this article is the theoretical, methodological and methodical basis for the formation and forecasting of trends in the development of the dairy market in Ukraine. The purpose of the work is to highlight the current problems of the dairy market of Ukraine and to forecast its development trends in the short term. The following tasks are solved in the article: analysis of the dynamics of changes in the number of cows, milk production and growth of milk yields per cow in Ukraine as a whole and in the context of agricultural enterprises and households during 2010-2018; study of the dynamics of average prices for buying milk by dairy enterprises in the domestic market; evaluation of the quality of cow's milk, which is received for processing, for samples; implementation of economic analysis of milk production in Ukraine, SWOT analysis of the dairy industry in Ukraine. The following research methods are used: comparative and statistical analysis – in the study of cow's milk production in Ukraine as a whole and in the context of agricultural enterprises and households during 2010-2018, as well as the dynamics of average milk yield per cow per average cow population, milk processing volumes, average purchase prices for raw milk and quality of cow's milk by variety; system-structural analysis, logical generalization - when conducting SWOT-analysis of dairy industry of Ukraine; economic-mathematical and graphical modeling - the first-order Brown method for forecasting the dynamics of milk production, milk yield per cow in Ukraine in the 2020-2022 period. The following results were obtained: two opposite tendencies are observed in the dairy market of Ukraine today - the tendency to increase milk yields and the tendency to decrease the dairy herd. For the next three years, based on the first-order Brown method, milk yields per cow are expected to continue to increase as the total number of cows decreases. At the same time, the use of the strengths of the dairy sector of Ukraine and its potential opportunities revealed during the SWOT-analysis, in particular: increase of dairy cattle productivity, increase of extra-class milk production, improvement of control mechanisms of quality and safety of dairy products, gradual expansion for the domestic agro-industrial sector of international rules of trade, insurance, crediting, investing, will allow to diversify trade flows already in the short-term perspective most realize the export potential of the industry, expanding access to EU food markets, Asian and African markets. Conclusions: On the whole, we can identify the state of the Ukrainian dairy market as one that is quite actively developing and has every chance of entering the top five countries that are dynamically increasing the dairy industry in the near future.