Identification of Potential Farm Pond Sites for Spring Surface Runoff Harvesting Using an Integrated Analytical Hierarchy Process in a GIS Environment in Northern Kazakhstan

Abstract

People living in arid and semi-arid areas with highly variable rainfall often face droughts and floods that affect water availability. Surface runoff harvesting is a historical water delivery system utilized in times of water scarcity to fulfill the ever-increasing demand for water, address climate change, and prevent desertification. However, the study of snowmelt and flood water harvesting in steppe areas with cold and semi-arid climates are understudied in the international literature. This paper, combining remote sensing (RS) and a geographic information systems (GIS)-based analytical hierarchy process (AHP), provides a cost-efficient and reliable tool for assessing potential farm pond sites in the steppe region of Northern Kazakhstan. The research is based on six weighted thematic layers: hydrogeology (5%), slope (10%), drainage density (25.5%), land use/land cover (25.5%), soil (5%), and snow water equivalent (29%), which mainly influence the availability, runoff, infiltration, and accumulation of snowmelt and flood water, in order to identify potential farm pond sites in the Akkayin district (North Kazakhstan). As a result, 3.3% of the study area had a very high potential, 35.5% high, 56.5% medium, 4.6% low, and only 0.1% was recognized as the least preferred. The most suitable sites had medium drainage density, low slope, high snow water equivalent, and were located on flooded vegetation. The accuracy of our model was assessed using the existing farm pond sites from the Soviet era, which showed 82% coincidence. Furthermore, by collecting meltwater from 30% of the study area (135,000 ha), one-fourth of the cultivated land in the Akkayin district (i.e., 54,000 ha) could be transferred to deficit irrigation. This would reduce floods, stabilize farmers’ income in dry years, and open up the possibility of cultivating other highly profitable crops. Overall, the study provides evidence of the great potential of the Akkayin district in snow meltwater harvesting in farm ponds as a response to agricultural drought and spring floods.