Abstract

Time series analysis is applied to identify and analyze a transition in the groundwater regime in the aquifer below the sand ridge of Salland in the Netherlands, where groundwater regime refers to the range of head variations throughout the seasons. Standard time series analysis revealed a discrepancy between modeled and observed heads in several piezometers indicating a possible change in the groundwater regime. A new time series modeling approach is developed to simulate the transition from the initial regime to the altered regime. The transition is modeled as a weighted sum of two responses, one representing the initial state of the system, the other representing the altered state. The inferred timing and magnitude of the change provided strong evidence that the transition was the result of significant dredging works that increased the river bed conductance of the main river draining the aquifer. The plausibility of this explanation is corroborated by an analytical model. This case study and the developed approach to identify a change in the groundwater regime are meant to stimulate a more systematic application of time series analysis to detect and understand changes in groundwater systems which may easily go unnoticed in groundwater flow modeling.

Highlights

  • The worldwide increase in groundwater demand requires increased care in assessing groundwater reserves, especially in the context of a changing climate (e.g., Wada et al 2017)

  • This case study and the developed approach to identify a change in the groundwater regime are meant to stimulate a more systematic application of time series analysis to detect and understand changes in groundwater systems which may go unnoticed in groundwater flow modeling

  • The objective of this paper is to present a case study to demonstrate how time series analysis can be applied to identify and analyze a transition in the groundwater regime and help detect its cause

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Summary

Introduction

The worldwide increase in groundwater demand requires increased care in assessing groundwater reserves, especially in the context of a changing climate (e.g., Wada et al 2017). Time series analysis has been applied to quantify decreasing trends in groundwater head (Weider and Boutt 2010), the effect of groundwater pumping (e.g., Baggelaar 1988; Van Geer et al 1988; Von Asmuth et al 2008; Harp and Vesselinov 2011; Obergfell et al 2013; Shapoori et al 2015) or to quantify the effects of river stage fluctuations (Barlow et al 2000; Obergfell et al 2016). The objective of this paper is to present a case study to demonstrate how time series analysis can be applied to identify and analyze a transition in the groundwater. The term groundwater regime refers to the range of head variations of a time series throughout the seasons

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