Identification and Correlation Analysis of Engineering Environmental Risk Factors along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor

Tianqi Zhang,Wenbing Yu,Lin Chen,Yan Lu

doi:10.3390/rs14040908

Abstract

Global warming has increased the security risk of permafrost environment in the Tibetan Plateau, which has been threatening infrastructures along the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC). Combined with the traditional risk identification and the causal feedback relationship of system dynamics, the authors present a novel engineering environment risk identification model including five risk subsystems, i.e., regional geomorphology, climate change, ecological environment, permafrost environment and water environment. Our model could successfully identify the interaction relationships and transmission path among risk factors of the environment of the QTEC. The basic data calculation, interaction degree analysis and regional distribution characteristic analysis of the identified risk factors were carried out by using a geographic information system (GIS), a partial correlation analysis and a zoning analysis. The results show that the static factors (i.e., elevation, slope, aspect, relief degree of land surface and volume ice content) mainly affected the spatial distribution of environmental risk factors, while the climate change factors (i.e., mean annual air temperature, mean annual precipitation and surface solar radiation), among the dynamic factors, were the root factors of the dynamic changes in environmental risks. The model identified five types of parallel risk paths in the QTEC. This novel method and proposed model can be used to identify and assess multi-scale engineering environmental risks in the cryosphere.

Highlights

State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Their applications are largely limited by the following points: (i) it is easy to miss potential risks in changing risk factors; (ii) the expert investigation method is too one-sided and the cost is high; (iii) the decomposition analysis method can only list the risk factor matrix; (iv) the traditional method only looks at the risk of the system from a static perspective, which cannot reflect the dynamic nature of risk factors, that is, it combines the risks of each subsystem to analyze the risk of the whole system [104]
We present a novel method for the identification of engineering environmental hazards in cold regions and an engineering environmental risk identification model to dynamically identify the risk factors of engineering environmental hazards in the cryosphere

Summary

Introduction

The qualitative assessment mainly focuses on the evaluation of the engineering geological conditions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and risk factors are selected on the basis of field surveys, monitoring data of permafrost and engineering buildings, and experimental data [27,37]. (1) Catastrophe progression method: risk factors are selected from the perspective of thermal stability of permafrost and natural environment for engineering geological evaluation [38]. (4) The risk zonation index (Ir): factors such as surface properties, volume ice content, soil texture and active layer thickness are selected to analyze the degree of thaw settlement disaster [43,44]. (6) The allowable bearing capacity index (Ia): the effects of soil type and mean annual ground temperature on the stability distribution of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau are considered [46] The quantitative evaluation mostly adopts the following eight methods. (1) Catastrophe progression method: risk factors are selected from the perspective of thermal stability of permafrost and natural environment for engineering geological evaluation [38]. (2) Hazard degree analysis: according to the disaster environment, the characteristics of the disaster and the relevant literature, the disaster-causing factors of different geological disasters are selected [39]. (3) The settlement index (Is): the active layer thickness and volume ice content are selected to analyze the thaw settlement hazard [32,33,40,41,42]. (4) The risk zonation index (Ir): factors such as surface properties, volume ice content, soil texture and active layer thickness are selected to analyze the degree of thaw settlement disaster [43,44]. (5) The permafrost settlement hazard index (Ip): the effects of ecological factors such as soil texture, vegetation and organic content of soil on permafrost thawing disasters are considered [45]. (6) The allowable bearing capacity index (Ia): the effects of soil type and mean annual ground temperature on the stability distribution of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau are considered [46]

Objectives

Methods

Findings

Discussion

Conclusion