ICONE15-10513 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF NATIOAL POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES BY USING THE AHP TECHNIQUE

Abstract

In the present work, various national electricity generating systems associated with conventional as well as renewable energy resources are comparatively assessed in view of life-cycle multi-criteria (economic, environmental, health, and social) spaces. The essential objectives of the study are (1) to comprehensively compare the options for an electricity supply, (2) to complementarily support nuclear power's role in a national energy sector, and (3) to contribute to sustainability-oriented research and development in the energy and power sectors. Here, various national power sources including conventional as well as renewable energy systems are comparatively assessed in view of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) spaces. Previous MCDM approaches for energy mix policies are mostly based on risk factors or environmental factors. In the ExternE project, environmental aspects are quantified from the point of view of an externality of an energy development cycle. National energy mix policies of individual countries are still based on economic points such as power generation cost, fuel import cost, land availability, etc. In this paper a multiple aspects approach for making decisions on the selection energy generation technologies is considered. The framework of the decision making process for the energy mix alternatives in this study considered the environmental aspects, health aspects, risk aspects, social aspects, and economical aspects collectively. The AHP (analytical hierarchy process) is considered in this paper and it is demonstrated through an example work for an energy mix alternatives framework. Power source alternatives under consideration are the conventional systems such as nuclear and fossil-fuelled (coal-fired, heavy oil-fired, LNG) as well as the new and renewable energy systems (hydropower, wind power, solar photovoltaic (PV) power). These seven options are evaluated in terms of several conflicting criteria representing the generation cost, land use, global warming, etc. As a demonstration of this approach, four main criteria (Level 1) and eleven sub-criteria (Level 2) spaces are chosen after other previous work was reviewed. From an integrated point of view, overall preference of the power sources can be summarized as follows: Nuclear ≻ Wind ≻ PV ≻ Hydro ≻ LNG ≻ Oil ≻ Coal. From an integrated viewpoint of the economical, the environmentally-friendly, the socially-acceptable, and the healthy aspects, nuclear power takes first place. Renewable energy sources (i.e., PV, wind, and hydro powers) are in second place. The last one is held by the fossil-fueled power sources (i.e., LNG, heavy oil, and coal).