Abstract
Abstract. A dense network of helicopter-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements was used to determine the ice-thickness distribution in the Mauvoisin region. The comprehensive set of ice-thickness measurements was combined with an ice-thickness estimation approach for an accurate determination of the bedrock. A total ice volume of 3.69 ± 0.31 km3 and a maximum ice thickness of 290 m were found. The ice-thickness values were then employed as input for a combined glacio-hydrological model forced by most recent regional climate scenarios. This model provided glacier evolution and runoff projections for the period 2010–2100. Runoff projections of the measured initial ice volume distribution show an increase in annual runoff of 4% in the next two decades, followed by a persistent runoff decrease until 2100. Finally, we checked the influence of the ice-thickness distribution on runoff projections. Our analyses revealed that reliable estimates of the ice volume are essential for modelling future glacier and runoff evolution. Wrong estimations of the total ice volume might even lead to deviations of the predicted general runoff trend.
Highlights
The demand for renewable energy is rising, especially when considering the declining confidence in nuclear power and the ascending greenhouse gas emissions (Bundesamt fur Energie, 2011a)
This study focuses on the determination of the glacier bed topography in the Mauvoisin region and the impact of the initial ice volume distribution on runoff projections of high-mountain catchments until 2100
Our results suggest that the incorporation of groundpenetrating radar (GPR)-based ice-thickness measurements is of high importance in order to provide reliable runoff projections especially for the 30–40 yr when profound changes are expected
Summary
The demand for renewable energy is rising, especially when considering the declining confidence in nuclear power and the ascending greenhouse gas emissions (Bundesamt fur Energie, 2011a). In alpine regions with sufficient amounts of precipitation, hydropower is one of the most efficient and appropriate energy sources (Bundesamt fur Energie, 2011b). In many high-mountain basins the water supply to hydropower reservoirs primarily consists of melt providing considerable amounts of water even in summer, when precipitation events are rare (Verbunt et al, 2003; Hock et al, 2005). Glaciers act as large freshwater reservoirs accumulating snow during the cold season and releasing the water accumulated as snow and ice during summer. This leads to sustainable differences in the runoff regime of glacierized basins compared to non-glacierized ones The projected climate change and the associated glacier retreat entail the potential risk of serious diminution of the glacial induced water supply (Braun et al, 2000; Huss et al, 2008b; Farinotti et al, 2012)
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