Abstract
A model of ice loads and failure during ice-structure contact is proposed. The model is shown to be in good agreement with measured ice load data. The causes of variability and randomness in ice loads are addressed. Chaos theory is employed to analyze the behavior of the iterative sequence of cracks in the model. A simple set of analytical equations is used to model the ice contact process. The chaotic behavior of the equations is due to asymmetrical ice flaking. The resulting ice forces can be described with probability distributions derived from mechanical parameters. Comparison is made with measured ice forces from one set of tests and measured pressure-area values from another. Limitations and future directions are discussed.
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