Hysteresis and irreversibility of global extreme precipitation to anthropogenic CO2 emission

Abstract

Understanding of extreme precipitation change in response to CO2 forcing and associated socioeconomic exposure is limited. In this study, a comprehensive analysis is conducted to explore the response of global extreme precipitation to CO2 forcing in terms of hysteresis and reversibility effect and associated population exposure. In this regard, climate outputs under two idealized CO2 scenarios such as ramp-up (RU; about +1% annually until quadrupling of present level) and ramp-down (RD; around −1% annually set back to present level) from Community Earth System Model version 1.2, and the projected population data from the five shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are used. Extreme precipitation events are evaluated using the number of heavy precipitation days (R30 mm), maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (Rx5day), and the precipitation of very wet days (R95pTOT) indices. Results show that the magnitude of extreme precipitation change and associated population exposure is higher in the CO2 reduction period (RD) than in RU. All the indices show substantial irreversible and hysteresis effects, ∼69% of the global land is expected to experience irreversible changes in extreme precipitation. Further, the hotspots of irreversibility (the region with irreversible change and a large hysteresis) will emerge in >20% of the global area. Spatially, strong hysteresis and irreversibility are particularly concentrated over global land monsoon regions. The leading exposure is estimated under SSP3 combined with both RU and RD periods. Under the SSP3-RD combination, the highest population exposure is estimated at ∼67.1% (globally averaged), and ∼72% (averaged over hotspots) higher than that of the present day. The exposed population is prominent in South Africa and Asia. Notably, the population change effect is the principal factor in global exposure change, while it is the climate change effect over the hotspots of irreversibility. These findings provide new insight into policymaking that only CO2 mitigation effort is not enough to cope with extreme precipitation, rather advanced adaptation planning is a must to have more socio-economic benefits.