Hype, skin in the game, and the stability of cooperative science

Abstract

AbstractWe address a recently posed question: ‘Why Do So Many Astronomy (and Astrobiology) Discoveries Fail to Live Up to the Hype?’ We expand it to cover hype within science in general. Our answer relies on working definitions of hype and skin in the game, as applied to research science, and a game theory model for the stability of cooperative science. Low skin in the game allows internal feedbacks, within the research science community, to initiate increased hype and a drift toward structural instability. The instability leads to the deterioration of cooperative equilibria, which further enhances hype. Along the drift, the number of results hyped as breakthroughs will increase and more claims will fail to live up to the hype. This can lead to the public perception that science is moving backwards and a shift in the perception of what scientists, and science, values. Although a hype instability can be initiated by external nudges, a bigger role is played by the internal dynamics of the system, i.e. the collective of working scientists. Corrections for a drift toward instability should, likewise, focus on internal structure. Proposed external shifts on how research is disseminated will add restrictions to a system that can do more harm than good.