Abstract
The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied for the first time in Cuba to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water availability in the Cauto River basin. The model was calibrated (and validated) for the 2001–2006 (2007–2010) period at a monthly timescale in two subbasins La Fuente and Las Coloradas, representative of middle and upper sections of the Cauto basin; the calibrated models showed good performance. The output available for the regional climate Model RegCM4.3 was used to force the calibrated SWAT models to simulate a baseline (1970–2000) period and near-future (2015–2039) hydrologic regimes under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario. The future projections suggest regional increases of 1.5 °C in mean annual temperature and a 38% decrease in mean annual precipitation in the subbasins. These changes translate to possible reductions in the annual streamflow of up to 61% with respect to the baseline period, whereas the aquifer recharge in the basin is expected to decrease up to 58%, with a consequent reduction of groundwater flow, especially during the boreal summer wet season. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.
Highlights
The management and planning of water resources is becoming more challenging due to the uncertainties of climate change [1]
The sensitivity analyses showed that five parameters were the most sensitive for the region based on a low p-value (≤0.05) of a t-test: Initial curve number (II) value (CN2), available water capacity (SOL_AWC), saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K), channel effective hydraulic conductivity (CH_K2), and baseflow alpha factor for bank storage (ALPHA_BNK)
The high sensitivity of CN2 and soil available water capacity (SOL_AWC) revealed the importance of the surface runoff in the hydrology of the subbasins, which was expected considering the characteristics of the subbasins
Summary
The management and planning of water resources is becoming more challenging due to the uncertainties of climate change [1]. The increase in temperature, variations in precipitation, and changes in the frequency of extreme events increase the probability of flood occurrences and change the total and seasonal water supply, among other impacts [2]. Recent studies on climate change in the Caribbean [3,4], in Cuba [5,6], suggest that air temperatures may increase, and precipitation may decrease at the end of the 21st century, especially during the summer season. Modeling the hydrology of Caribbean river basins presents challenges due to their high climatic variability and the strong influence of extreme events, for instance by tropical storms and hurricanes [7]. Despite the increasing availability of hydrological models, their use in tropical islands is generally
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