Hydrological and Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon River Basin in Central Vietnam

Abstract

This paper summarizes some of the climate (change) impact modeling activities conducted in the Land use and Climate Change interactions in Central Vietnam (LUCCi) project. The study area is the Vu Gia-Thu Bon (VGTB) river basin in Central Vietnam, which is characterized by recurrent floods during the rainy season, but also water shortages during the dry season. The impact modeling activities, such as the validation of the models are hindered by the scarcity of hydrometeorological data and an unfavorable distribution of the observation network, i.e., station data is available only for the lowlands. In total, two different process-based and distributed hydrological models are applied in concert with climate change and land use projections. Based on that, the magnitudes and return periods of extreme flows are estimated. The modeling results suggest increases of extreme high flows due to climate change. A multi-objective agro-economical model was developed for a typical irrigation scheme in the region in order to optimize the area for cropping, irrigation-techniques and schedules. The model results suggest the irrigation technique Alternate Wetting and Drying, which has the potential to increase the benefits for the farmers and help to mitigate greenhouse gases at the same time. In addition, the regional-scale crop model GLAM is applied for groundnut under rainfed conditions, which is capable to identify regions suitable for cropping in the future. The paper further synthesizes recommendations for local stakeholders in Central Vietnam.