Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change in Mountainous Watershed of Southwest China, 1980 to 2010

Abstract

Hydrologic responses to climate change have become a great challenge and attracted widespread attention of the researchers. The mountainous Qingyi River watershed in the southwest, China, had experienced significant climate change in the past three decades. It is necessary to investigate the hydrologic responses to these changes. Therefore, the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration (ET), surface runoff, baseflow and streamflow were assessed using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The Mann–Kendall test analysis was first used to identify the long-term change in precipitation and temperature over the period of 1980–2010. It revealed that there is a significant change in annual temperature particularly in February, March, July and September, whereas an insignificant change in annual precipitation was founded. Hydrologic simulations show that hydrologic responses to climate change were varied from region to region. Surface runoff was more sensitive than ET and baseflow. Monthly variation of the hydrologic processes, especially the change in surface runoff, was mainly attributed to seasonal variation in precipitation. The results of this research can be a useful source of information for the decision making in water resources management and protection.