Abstract
Knowledge on the different components of flood risk has much improved over the last decades, but research which fully takes into account not only the interactions between those components but also between different areas in a catchment or delta is still rare. Integrated analyses based on a complete system’s approach at sufficiently large scale will improve our understanding of how flood risk systems with flood protection infrastructure in place behave under extreme conditions, it may help to develop sensible long-term strategies, and allows us to better prepare for flood events of all magnitudes. To illustrate the relevance of a hydrodynamic system’s approach for flood risk management we analyse the effect of defence breaches on flood risks elsewhere along the lower Rhine River and discuss the use of this knowledge for flood risk management.
Highlights
In the past, flood risk management was often reactive and measures were taken to prevent the latest event from happening again
The effect of hydrodynamic interdependencies on flood risks in a river system with protection depends on: Ͳ Differences in protection standards/ failure probabilities between locations in the system; Ͳ The most relevant failure mechanisms Ͳ The storage capacity of the areas protected by the embankments in relation to the shape and volume of the discharge wave; Ͳ Flood impacts and differences in impacts in the areas behind the breaches
This paper focuses on the Dutch part of the Lower Rhine River, from the Dutch-German border until the North Sea and Lake IJssel
Summary
Flood risk management was often reactive and measures were taken to prevent the latest event from happening again. The effect of hydrodynamic interdependencies on flood risks in a river system with protection depends on: Ͳ Differences in protection standards/ failure probabilities between locations in the system; Ͳ The most relevant failure mechanisms (which influence the moment of breaching) Ͳ The storage capacity of the areas protected by the embankments in relation to the shape and volume of the discharge wave; Ͳ Flood impacts and differences in impacts in the areas behind the breaches. For delta areas a different approach is needed which considers the whole range of possible storm surge levels and river discharges in an integrated way Such an approach was developed by [3] who took into account the effect of failure of embankments into flood risk analyses for a large river delta. Hydrodynamic interdependencies are expected to be most relevant for the non-tidal and transition zones, since their breaches will reduce the river discharge
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