Hydroclimate Impact Analyses and Water Management in the Central Rift Valley Basin in Ethiopia

Abstract

This study explores the impacts of climate change on the major components of the water balance such as surface runoff (Q), water yield (WY), and evapotranspiration (ET) in the Central Rift Valley Basin (CRVB) in Ethiopia. Projected climate data from the climate emission scenarios were used for the analyses. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) data from the MIROC-RCA4 ensemble driving climate models were downscaled, bias-corrected, and applied for impact analyses. Climate scenario analyses for the near-term (2031–2060) and long-term (2070–2099) periods were used to assess the conditions of the water balance components. The endo hydrogenic CRVB was divided into three sub-basins, and their respective hydroclimatic impacts were simulated separately with calibrated Arc-SWAT models. The future impacts simulated on the annual average basis vary in their maximum ranges from −65.2% to +85.8% in Q, from −42.2% to +23.9% in WY, and from −4.1% to +17.3% in ET compared to the baseline data outputs in the individual sub-basin. Water management options according to the water balance sensitivities to the climate impacts were proposed for each of the sub-basins. SWAT-based studies aimed at balanced water resources management in combination with agricultural practices within the CRVB are recommended for future research.