Abstract
ABSTRACTHydro-meteorological drought was assessed with respect to climate change over an estuary catchment Vu Gia-Thu Bon in Central Vietnam, which economy is dependent on agriculture. The fully-distributed hydrological model MIKE SHE was used to simulate river flow over the study region for the period 1991–2010. Drought were assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Runoff Index. The future climate was studied using the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting by downscaling an ensemble of three global climate models – CCSM3.0, ECHAM5 and MIROC-medium resolution over current (1961–1990) and future climates (2011–2040), under the A2 emissions scenario. The results suggest that, despite hotter and wetter future climate, the area is likely to suffer more from severe and extreme droughts, increasing about 100% in the median range for drought characteristics. Thus, there is a need for proper adaptation and planning for water resources management in this region.
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