Abstract
본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 미래 기후, 수문정보로부터 가뭄전망 정보를 생산 및 분석하고자 한다. 미래의 불확실성을 고려하기위해 3개 GCMs와 3개 수문모형을 이용하였다. 강수량, 유출량 및 토양수분량으로부터 기상학적, 수문학적 및 농업적 가뭄지수로 분류되는 SPI, SRI 및 SSI를 산정하였다. Mann-Kendall test 결과, 미래 가뭄의 경향은 봄철 및 겨울철에 크게 증가할 것으로 전망되었으며, 가뭄발생빈도의 경우 SRI 및 SSI가 SPI 보다 더 높게 나타났다. 미래 기후변화가 기상학적 가뭄 보다는 수문학적 및 농업적 가뭄에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. The objective of this study is to project and analyze drought conditions using future climate and hydrology information over South Korea. This study used three Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three hydrological models considering the uncertainty of future scenario. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Soil moisture Index (SSI) classified as meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts were estimated from the precipitation, runoff and soil moisture. The Mann-Kendall test showed high increase in future drought trend during spring and winter seasons, and the drought frequency of SRI and SSI is expected higher than that of SPI. These results show the high impact of climate change on hydrological and agriculture drought compared to meteorological drought.
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