Hybridized machine learning models for phosphate pollution modeling in water systems for multiple uses

Abstract

Phosphate pollution in water bodies is a significant environmental concern, especially in regions with extensive agricultural practices. Hence, a tool for accurately assessing the phosphate concentration is essential. This research paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning (ML) models combined with nature-inspired optimization algorithms for predicting phosphate levels in water systems. The novelty consists of integrating the power of machine learning models, which have been presenting excellent performance at capturing complex relationships in environmental pollution data, with the Harris Hawks Optimizer (HHO) optimization capabilities inspired by hawks' hunting behavior. Four hybrid implementations combining the HHO were evaluated, and four feature subsets were assessed to identify the most influential variables in the modeling process. Using water quality data from Brazilian upstream watersheds, the hybrid models were trained and validated, enabling accurate and robust predictions of phosphate concentrations. The elastic net (EN) model optimized by Harris Hawk Optimizer (HHO-EN) produced the best-averaged performance among all experiments (R = 0.825, R2 = 0.670, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.049 mg/L, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.037 mg/L). A parametric and feature importance analysis identified the most influential parameters in the contamination modeling process. Hybrid machine learning models represent a novel and efficient strategy for water quality monitoring and environmental management, supporting the preservation of aquatic ecosystems.