Hybrid multiple structural break model for stock price trend prediction

Abstract

Because of the noises from the internal and external factors, the uncertainty increases in the financial market. The challenges of nonlinearities, volatility clusters, and multiple structural breaks which entail risk. Due to the risk, the prediction task becomes more complex. First, this work proposes a hybrid model to predict the one-day future price for the stocks; MSFT, Apple, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan use the Markov switching model coupled with radial basis function network for prediction. Second, this paper forecasts the buy/sell trading strategy using the proposed hybrid method. Also, this paper explores the risk of investment decisions and the trading performance based on different value at risk (VaR) methods. Finally, by comparing the proposed model results with the pure linear and non-linear models, the prediction efficiency is evaluated. The experimental results indicate the investment risk, and the investment trading strategy provides a better accuracy with the best investment decision for the selected stocks.