Hybrid attention-based temporal convolutional bidirectional LSTM approach for wind speed interval prediction.

Abstract

Precise wind speed prediction is crucial for the management of the wind power generation systems. However, the stochastic nature of the wind speed makes optimal interval prediction very complicated. In this paper, a hybrid approach consisting of improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), temporal convolutional network with attention mechanism (ATCN), and bidirectional long short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM) is proposed for wind speed interval prediction (WSIP). First, ICEEMDAN is used to pre-process the raw data by decomposing the wind signal to several intrinsic mode functions. ATCN is used to reduce the uncertainty from the denoised data and extract the important temporal and spatial characteristics. Then, Bi-LSTM is used to forecast the high-quality intervals for the wind speed. Existing approaches observe a decline in the forecasting performance when the time ahead increases. As a result, the hybrid approach is evaluated using 5-min, 10-min, and 30-min ahead WSIP. To evaluate the novelty of the proposed approach, an experiment is conducted utilising wind speed data from the Garden City, Manhattan wind farm. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperformed the comparison models with percentage improvements of 36%, 47%, and 17% for 5-min, 10-min, and 30-min ahead WSIP.