Hybrid approaches of accident modeling for risk management in socio-technical systems

Abstract

Statement of a problem. The increasing complexity in high-tech systems leads to potentially disastrous failure models and new kinds of safety issues. This led to the development of new approaches, for modeling accidents and risk management. In recent years, extended and hybrid approaches have been gaining popularity due to their effectiveness in decision-making for the design and operation of socio-technical systems. The proliferation of these approaches makes it difficult to select the appropriate approach for a particular system. Purpose. Conduct a comparative analysis of various hybrid approaches of accidents in complex systems, identify the strengths and weaknesses of each one, and study the feasibility of their use in risk management in socio-technical systems. Results. The paper analyzes the main approaches of accident modeling (FRAM, STAMP, failure tree, AcciMap) and their limitations in determining cause-effect relationships and dynamics of modern complex systems. New approaches to safety and accident modeling in sociotechnical systems are discussed, these approaches depend on combining several models into one hybrid approach: FuzzyFTA, FRAM-ANP, ACAT-FRAM, STAMP-HFACS, AcciMap-ANP, and SD-ET-FT-ANN. A review of hybrid approaches of accident modeling in complex systems and identify weaknesses and strengths, as well as the application field of each one of these approaches. Practical importance. This study will be a guide for researchers in the field of accident modeling and risk management in sociotechnical systems. It also concludes that it is necessary to use different approaches to risk management depending on the type of risk and the complexity of the system.