Hybrid approach for flood susceptibility assessment in a flood-prone mountainous catchment in China

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• We developed a hybrid approach integrating physical-based flood models with random forest for flood susceptibility assessment. • We identified the relatively significant flood-inducing factors. • The geographical and hydromorphological factors had greater effects on riverine flooding. • This flood susceptibility assessment is suitable in ungauged areas. Flooding is one of the most destructive natural hazards that has caused catastrophic effects worldwide. Recently, machine learning methods have become widespread in flood susceptibility assessments due to their efficiency and robustness. However, flood inventory data acquired from historical flooding records and field surveys in existing studies are sparse and not enough to develop accurate machine learning models. Thus, we developed a hybrid approach that integrates hydrodynamic model (HEC-HMS/RAS), rapid flood model (height above the nearest drainage, HAND) and machine learning model (random forest, RF) for flood susceptibility assessment. The proposed approach was then implemented in the Xinluo watershed, a flood-prone mountainous catchment in China. The results showed that the spatially continuous flood inventory map generated from HEC-HMS/RAS model satisfies the big data requirements of the RF model, and the proposed hybrid approach demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency in flood susceptibility assessment with overall accuracy and area under the ROC curve values of 0.915 and 0.912, respectively. The geographical and hydromorphological factors had greater effects on riverine flooding with average contribution of 27.8% and 27.6%. In comparison, the average contribution of land cover and meteorological factors were 24.3% and 20.3%, respectively. The method proposed in this study is effective in assessing and forecasting flood susceptibility and can facilitate resilience planning as well as integrated flood management.