Abstract
Human errors are considered to be the main causation factors of high-temperature molten metal accidents in metallurgical enterprises. The complex working environment of high- temperature molten metal in metallurgical enterprises has an important influence on the reliability of human behavior. A review of current human reliability techniques confirms that there is a lack of quantitative analysis of human errors in high-temperature molten metal operating environments. In this paper, a model was proposed to support the human reliability analysis of high-temperature molten metal operation in the metallurgy industry based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), fuzzy logic theory, and Bayesian network (BN). The comprehensive rules of common performance conditions in conventional CREAM approach were provided to evaluate various conditions for high-temperature molten metal operation in the metallurgy industry. This study adopted fuzzy CREAM to consider the uncertainties and used the BN to determine the control mode and calculate human error probability (HEP). The HEP for workers involved in high-temperature melting in steelmaking production process was calculated in a case with 13 operators being engaged in different high-temperature molten metal operations. The human error probability of two operators with different control modes was compared with the calculation result of basic CREAM, and the result showed that the method proposed in this paper is validated. This paper quantified point values of human error probability in high-temperature molten metal operation for the first time, which can be used as input in the risk evaluation of metallurgical industry.
Highlights
Metallurgical enterprises are the most important basic industries in the national economy
Human reliability analysis of high-temperature molten metal operation based on fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) and Bayesian network (BN)
Lack of reliable data in human reliability analysis method (HRA) has been a major problem in assessing the safety of personnel
Summary
Metallurgical enterprises are the most important basic industries in the national economy. Human reliability analysis of high-temperature molten metal operation based on fuzzy CREAM and BN of accidents in 36 large iron and steel enterprises reported by the Metallurgical Safety Committee of China Safety Association, in 2015, there were a total of 467 casualties in 36 large iron and steel enterprises, including 29 deaths, 17 serious injuries and 421 minor injuries. Statistics show that from 2010 to 2013, 31% of accidents in metallurgical enterprises are related to high-temperature molten metal [2]. Human factors are assumed to be the main causation factors in metallurgy accidents, metallurgical industry complex work environment and, especially, high-temperature molten metal work conditions have important effects on human behaviour, causing human error problems, but the metallurgy industry workers lack reliability data and limits human reliability research. It is very necessary and meaningful to study the reliability analysis method for evaluating human error in high temperature molten metal operation
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