Human Reliability Analysis for Fishing Vessels in Korea Using Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM)

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a model designed to predict human error probability (HEP) in the context of fishing boat operations utilizing the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). We conducted an analysis of potential accidents on fishing boats and calculated the cognitive failure probability (CFP) for each identified accident. The common performance conditions (CPCs) from the original CREAM were adapted to better reflect the conditions on fishing boats, with the adapted CPCs’ validity confirmed through expert consultations. To apply CREAM, data were gathered via a survey of fishermen, with the uncertainty in the collected data addressed through the application of fuzzy set theory (FST). We then established a Bayesian network (BN) model to elucidate the relationship between the fuzzy data and HEP, utilizing a weighted sum algorithm to determine conditional probabilities within the BN. Both basic and extended versions of CREAM were applied to analyze the most common accidents among fishermen, calculating the CFP for each type of accident. According to our analysis, the poorer the dynamic CPC, the higher the probability that a fall accident will occur inside the boat due to human error, necessitating a countermeasure. The paper proposes safety enhancements for small fishing boats and illustrates the increased precision of human reliability analysis (HRA) models in forecasting human error by incorporating quantitative methods. It calls for further data collection and refinement of the model for more accurate operational risk assessments.